Starmer's Allies Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Mayor's Commons Comeback

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.

Serious Barriers in the Selection Process

Multiple members on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avoid any potential leadership challenge.

The party apparatus reportedly sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

A number of insiders also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.